Thad McIlroy - The Future of Publishing

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Magazines
Jul 23, 08
Esquire Magazine Takes a Stab at the Future of Publishing
A glowing article in last Monday's New York Times alerted readers that Esquire magazine, celebrating its 75th anniversary this year, has figured out a trick to gain
Jun 20, 08
Not a Good Week for Publishers
It's not as if the last few months have been exactly perky and upbeat around publishing offices across the U.S. But the last week seems to have been completely
Jun 15, 08
Steve Ballmer Forecasts the Death of Print Media
I am still reeling from Steve Ballmer's atrociously ill-considered remarks to The Washington Post  (Ballmer, as most recall, is CEO of Microsoft, when Bill G.

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Magazines References

1. Some of the best sources of general information on the magazine industry's current state of affairs are:
  1. Magazine Publishers of America: "Magazine Publishers of America (MPA) is the industry association for consumer magazines. Established in 1919, the MPA represents more than 240 domestic publishing companies with approximately 1,400 titles, more than 80 international companies and more than 100 associate members.
  2. Magazines Canada: "Magazines Canada is Canada's leading professional magazine industry association, representing over 300 of the country's consumer titles."
  3. The Periodical Publishers Association (PPA): "PPA is the organisation for magazine and professional media publishers in the UK. PPA's role is to promote and protect the interests of the industry in general, and member companies in particular.
  4. Audit Bureau of Circulations (http://www.accessabc.com/). There are also similar bureaus in most larger countries.

2. TheStateOfTheNewsMedia.org offers a broad change of informational charts surrounding the state of magazine publishing:



3. Magazine PIB Advertising Revenue and Pages Post Gains in First Quarter ‘07

A press release dated April 10, 2007 from PIB features this headline.

The Publishers Information Bureau (PIB), founded in 1947, is, by its own claim, “the premier source of consumer magazine advertising spending and related data… PIB is a membership organization, administered by Magazine Publishers of America, consisting of approximately 250 different magazine titles and newspaper-distributed magazines.” (The Magazine Publishers of America Web site claims “240 domestic publishing companies with approximately 1,400 titles.”)

Now, if there are 20,000 or more magazines in North America, is it “scientific” to rely on an agency representing 250 of them, even if these are most of the largest consumer magazines in North America? I feel naturally skeptical, but I’m not certain of the answer.

This industry is, in my mind, now infamous for telling us what it wants us to know, not what we actually want to know. It’s not the only industry following such opaque practices. But I sometimes I feel like I’m on the Titanic and the captain is saying. “Don’t worry: this ship is unsinkable.”

Anyway, here on the Titanic, the word from March was that things are looking pretty good. Beyond the headline above, the press release informs that “Total magazine rate-card-reported advertising revenue for the first quarter of 2007 increased 6.9% compared to the same three-month period last year, closing at $5,273,215,997, according to Publishers Information Bureau (PIB). Ad pages totaled 52,154.49, up 1% from January through March, 2006.

“Total PIB revenue for the month of March 2007 increased 8.8% compared to last year, closing at $2,282,204,898. Ad pages totaled 22,388.48, up 2% from March 2006.”

As a general rule, the longer data period you examine, the closer you find yourself to the truth. This press release looks only at March 2006 to March 2007, as well as the Q1 figures, which for this industry are January to March. I’ll try to stick with those.

As the press release points out, “Three categories posted double-digit dollar increases: Drugs & Remedies (20.4%); Retail (19.5%); and Food & Food Products (11.7%).”

I’m having a tough time finding U.S. quarterly numbers, but in its monthly summary the U.S. Census Department reported that retail sales were up 3.8% from March 2006 to March 2007. In this same period, the PIB experienced a 21.1% increase in revenue from retail sales advertising, and a 10.4% increase in ad pages. Gosh know how differently these two organizations define “retail sales,” but on the face of it, these were not necessarily ad dollars well-spent.

Drug sales are just as tough to pin down. The Census figures don’t break out this category. One pharmacy, Longs, reported on April 5, 2007 that “pharmacy sales were 53.1 percent of sales compared with 52.1 percent last year.”

Piribo, “the source for information products concerning the global biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries,” reports that “the global pharmaceutical market is forecast to grow to US$842 billion in 2010, an equivalent CAGR of 6.9% over the next five years.”

My main point is this: there are just a few industries supporting advertising in the consumer magazine industry. The drug industry is the biggest one, because it is permitted in most countries to freely advertise prescription and non-prescription drugs, and most of those advertisements occupy at least two pages of the magazine (because of the required fine print).

If someone smarter than I can subtract the influence of these advertisers, just how different a picture would we see of the financial health of the largest consumer magazines?

4. Selling Subscriptions: For Youths, a Grim Tour on Magazine Crews

As I note above, quoting Folio magazine, “The marginal profit on advertising is very high, whereas the marginal profit from the publishing product is extremely low.”

Over the years this has led to some very aggressive tactics from companies associated with magazine publishers to help sell subscriptions.

Publishers Clearing House was the most infamous of these companies, with its multi-million-copy mailings promising huge sweepstakes winnings to those who took out magazine subscriptions (by implication; of course one was entered in the draw regardless!). The company managed to fall into disrepute (I do not recall the exact causes, nor care to research them), and while they once were the major (or one of the major) sources of new subscribers many for consumer magazines, they no longer are. New organizations are filling the gap, as this article brutally illustrates. The lead:

“Two days after graduating from high school last June, Jonathan Pope left his home in Miamisburg, Ohio, to join a traveling magazine sales crew, thinking he would get to “talk to people, party at night and see the country.

“Over the next six months, he and about 20 other crew members crossed 10 states, peddling subscriptions door to door, 10 to 14 hours a day, six days a week. Sleeping three to a room in cheap motels, lowest seller on the floor, they survived some days on less than $10 in food money while their earnings were kept ‘on the books’ for later payment.”

5. The Transformation of IDG

Colin Crawford was on “IDG’s Management Team as VP Business Development with a focus on new business initiatives, especially in the online space taking on the newly created position of SVP Online, IDG Communications in late 2005.”

In this blog he explains why IDG, founded by the near-legendary Pat McGovern, long an enormously successfully and much-admired print magazine publisher, has changed to a company that now defines itself “as a web centric information company complemented by expos, events and print publications.”

As he explains: “In the US, our online revenue now accounts for over 35% of our total US publishing revenues. Next year, for many brands online revenues will be greater than print revenues, if fact they already are at some of our key brands and by 2009 — approximately 50% of IDG’s US revenues will come from online.”
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