1. Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests
This useful article from the Wall Street Journal considers the historic pattern of recovery from recessions.
2. Too Soon to Relax
Given my affection for The Economist as an excellent gage of where things are, and where they're headed (they predicted the current economic problems years ago), I offer also this article from May, 2008.
3. An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude
In a May, 2008 New York Times article, Arjun N. Murti, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, "foresees a "super spike" -- a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel...the grim calculus of Mr. Murti's prediction, issued in March and reconfirmed two weeks ago, is enough to give anyone pause: in an America of $200 oil, gasoline could cost more than $6 a gallon."
The spin-off effects on the U.S. economy are frightening to contemplate.
4. National Trend of Home Price Declines Continued into the First Quarter of 2008 According to S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Many (most?) commentators on the changes in home prices consider the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices to be the most accurate indicator. On May 27th, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released data for Q1 2008, which showed the price declines "reached well into double digits, recording a 14.1% decline in the 1st quarter of 2008 versus the 1st quarter of 2007, the largest in the series 20-year history."
In 2005 I purchased the recently-published 2nd edition of Robert Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance." The main reason Shiller wrote the second edition, was to look at the real estate bubble, which was acknowledged by very few commentators at the time. As the dust jackets states: "Shiller amasses impressive evidence to support his argument the the recent housing market boom bears many similarities to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s, and may eventually be followed by declining home prices for years to come." He saw it coming.
5. The US Economy -- Is It FUBAR?
A very good short video from Mark Anderson (who I reference in my Friends/Links section) that provides a compelling argument that the economic data we're being fed by the U.S. government (and supported by the media) comes nowhere close to telling us the whole truth about the current financial predicament. A complementary article appears in the June 2008 issue of Harper's, called Our Phony Economy (although a subscription is required, or a newsstand purchase).