Aug 31, 10 By Thad McIlroy
(V1 January 1, 2009)
The Web is still in its infancy.
Technology will never block desired media changes; never say "never".
On a level playing field good content always wins.
Digital versions of analog forms of content do not draw the same revenue as their predecessors. However cost reduction, both fixed and variable, can outpace revenue reduction. The challenge for all publishers is to find adjusted business models that maintain or improve profit ratios.
Advertising spend is a zero-sum game, in other words, marketers do not increase budgets just because an attractive new channel to spend money is now available.
There remain just 24-hours in a day, and not all of that time can be devoted to the consumption of media. Multi-tasking increases total media consumption, if not the level of attention devoted.
Breadth + comprehension replace attention + full understanding. Today's media consumer gets less from more rather than more from less. Many are sated.
"Megahits" are not the only thing that matter. They are no longer the foundation on which media businesses must be built.
- Black + white thinking is anathema to appreciating change. Change is not either/or. It's and.
Don't be defensive; it attracts predators.
- The "long tail" exists but it's not a great business model.
There is a limit to the number of separate digital devices people want to carry. That limit is one.
Rarely does a single vendor dominate more than one technology era; the innovator's dilemma still puzzles most companies.
The value of face-to-face experience increases in value in direct proportion to the spread of disintermediated electronic encounters.
People still grow and their tastes and habits change, as they always have. Human nature remains a constant, but fashion changes.
Methods of education, in all forms and at all levels, have embarked on a path of irrevocable change.
People don't like DRM simply because they perceive that once they have purchased content, they shouldn't be restricted in what they can do with what they own.
Every DRM code ever created has been broken, and usually in a very short time. (The time it takes to break rises in direct proportion to the number of people who would have legitimate reasons to see it broken. If it's not broken it's because it didn't matter to enough people.)
Free is overrated. People will pay a reasonable amount for content if it's convenient to access and DRM-free. Just like suicide, opportunity enables rights infringement. DRM increases the attractiveness of free.
(At the same time) there will always be of content pirates. They are mostly consumers who would never have purchased the product in the first place. On good days they send word-of-mouth recommendations to paying consumers.
There's not much ROI on DRM.
You can run but you still can't hide from surreptitious data collection on the web. The battle continues; the outcome unclear. Each online privacy abuse makes things worse for everyone.
The systems established to maintain our privacy and security will become more pernicious and destructive than the thing they're saving us from.
Physical media used to record digital media will be phased out if it lacks an inherent physical aesthetic (i.e. most CDs DVDs do not; most books do).
There remain situations where mass-advertising is useful, but integrated and Unified Media Strategies have greater impact.
One of the most difficult skills in this age of new media is the development and execution of effective Unified Media Strategies.
Do not forget the law of "completely unexpected occurrences" and its sister law of "completely unexpected outcomes." The human tendency is to assume that things evolve in a linear fashion.
"The next revolution will catch us all off guard - as they always do. Said another way: if the crowd is anticipating the revolution, it can't be the revolution." - Doc Searls, 2002
"A tradition is only an innovation that worked." - The Economist, 2003
No doubt the media world is unfolding as it should.